Volume in mailing categories that are main profit centers for the Postal Service—First-Class mail and marketing mail (not including periodicals) could drop by as much as two-fifths over the next 10 years and will be down by more than a tenth even in the most favorable circumstances, says an inspector general report.
The report laid out three potential scenarios over 2025 to 2035 combined First-Class and marketing mail volume:
* A 29 percent decline in a baseline scenario where current trends continue with steady economic growth and unaccelerated adoption of digital alternatives.
* A 41 percent decline in a worst-case scenario with slow economic growth and accelerated diversion of volume to electronic alternatives.
* A 14 percent decline in a best-case scenario with a lack of new technological developments that disrupt the postal industry or speed up electronic diversion. “Given the strong connection between technological development and economic growth, this may be unlikely,” it says.
