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USPS promises on-time delivery as Black Friday shopping surged — but past holiday data shows real risks

In a recent press release covering Washington State and the wider nation, the agency touted new investments: 614 upgraded package-sorting machines nationwide, a ramped-up daily processing capacity of 88 million packages (up from 60 million last year), and 14,000 additional temporary workers hired to meet demand. The agency added that most mail and packages should arrive in under three days — with local deliveries often hitting a 2–3 day turnaround.

But recent performance records offer a more complicated picture.

A troubling history

During the 2023 peak season, the Postal Service’s top package services — including its Priority Mail and Ground Advantage offerings — failed to meet some delivery-time targets, according to a report from the agency’s Office of Inspector General. And while in the 2022 holiday stretch First-Class mail enjoyed roughly 91.6 percent on-time delivery, that figure fell last year.

Moreover, in July 2025 the USPS began officially relaxing some of its delivery standards — trimming back on its promises for two- and three-day mail. That means some packages could be arriving on a slower schedule than many consumers expect.

Yes, the Postal Service is better positioned this Black Friday than many previous years. thanks to new machines, extra staff and improved capacity. But past holiday seasons show that even a beefed-up system can stumble under stress. For anyone relying on time-sensitive deliveries during Christmas and Hanukkah, the smart move remains to ship early or pay for expedited options rather than assuming “under three days” will always hold up.

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