FedEx carries much of the U.S. Postal Service airmail, but they do use some commercial airlines as they recently warned of delays on shipments to China.
Smaller-sized air cargo that is typically transported by commercial airlines will probably see the biggest impact.
Commercial airlines make their money flying people, so these travel restrictions are going to reduce the number of flights between the U.S. and Europe as passenger demand dwindles and airlines reduce flights.
If merchants rely on air cargo for supply or order fulfillment, prices are likely to rise due to the diminished cargo capacity, and businesses should also expect longer transit times.
Losing commercial airlines for air cargo will require shippers to shift shipments to other carriers such as UPS, FedEx, DHL, and pure air cargo carriers.
How much excess capacity may exist with those carriers to pick up the slack from the commercial airlines is a really good question. Using the previously mentioned USPS example, it seems there wasn’t much available to go to China.